THEATRE · GULF · WATER INFRASTRUCTURE
TX · LIVE · 2026-06-11
Desalination Threat Response Desk
When up to 99% of potable water is desalinated, two–three damaged plants are a first-order economic shock. Select strike targets, set reservoir days, tanker capacity, interconnect share, and watch coverage collapse or stabilise.
Doctrine · AP I Art. 54 · Energy coupling · Reservoir clock
▶Plants hit 3 / 5▶Capacity online 1499 MLD▶Daily gap 603 MLD▶Coverage 84%▶Reservoir buffer 5 days▶IHL exposure 79/100▶Plants hit 3 / 5▶Capacity online 1499 MLD▶Daily gap 603 MLD▶Coverage 84%▶Reservoir buffer 5 days▶IHL exposure 79/100
01 · STRIKE IMPACT
Target board · desalination complexes
Water infrastructure is treated as a protected object under AP I Art. 54. Strikes lift the IHL-exposure rating non-linearly; the political cost outlasts the military value of the hit.
02 · CRISIS CELL
Response levers
Reservoir buffer5 days
Strategic reservoir coverage at current demand.
Tanker / truck fleet1100 trucks
Each truck moves ~20 m³ per rotation; saturates at port access.
GCC interconnect share25%
Cross-border pipeline + tanker flow from GCC neighbours.
Emergency rationing18%
Share of non-critical demand cut by emergency order.
03 · DEMAND vs SUPPLY
Water coverage telemetry
Coverage
84%
Daily gap
603MLD
Per-capita gap
60L/day
Severity
EMERGENCY
Avg rebuild time
73days
IHL exposure
79/100
Unit water cost
$4.4/m³
90-day cost
$238.6B
Energy coupling risk
80/100
Coverage shortfall16%
Energy coupling failure80%
IHL reputational cost79%
04 · REBUILD CURVE
Recovery trajectory
Reservoir days is a hard ceiling. Once buffer is exhausted, tanker-trucks and interconnect are the only short-term options until rebuild completes.
05 · ENGINEERING DESK
Fallback supply stack
Reservoir drawdown5 days
Strategic reservoirs at 92% demand. Declines linearly once supply falls below demand.
Tanker corridor1100 trucks
~22 MLD at peak rotation. Saturates at border-crossing throughput.
Interconnect25%
Cross-border pipeline + partner utilities. Sovereignty-conditional.
LNG re-gasstandby
Covers gas-coupled plants against Hormuz feed shock. Unit-energy premium rises.
Rationing18%
Emergency cut to non-critical demand. Politically priced, not free.
Worst-case rebuild80d
Longest plant rebuild sets the coverage ceiling timeline.