OPERATIONS · LIVE
BROADCAST · Thu, 11 Jun 2026 04:08 UTC

War Room · Operations Desk

Six live simulators, each with its own instrument panel. Every scenario exposes the technicalities — targets, levers, reversibility clocks, escalation ladders — so the cost of every short-window commitment shows up before you sign it.

Kinetic · Geopolitical3State capacity1Humanitarian · Logistics1Critical infrastructure1
Theatres armed
6 / 6
Compound-window
4–6 weeks
Benchmark deadline
2026-06-30
Electoral deadline
postponed
HLX-01LIVE

Hormuz–Levant Convergence

Synchronised Mediterranean and Gulf corridor disruption. Brent, airlift, Lebanese FX, Awali-Line and the Iran–Israel regime all share one control surface.

Convergence Index
78/100
Brent
$132
GCC kcal floor
36 d
Transit closureAwali pressureStrike regimeAirlift fleet
/ simulationENTER DESK →
LIT-02LIVE

Litani–Awali Buffer Zone

Buffer depth, LAF salary coverage, disarmament compliance and the 2026-06-30 funding-benchmark cliff — modelled against the UNIFIL / SLA mandate-creep precedents.

Mandate creep
72/100
LAF stability
44/100
Benchmark miss
61%
Buffer depthDisarm %Funding gateSunset clause
/ simulationENTER DESK →
IRN-03LIVE

Iran–Israel Strike Loop

Switching-regime simulator. Arm critical-infra targets (Bushehr, Abqaiq, desalination, ports, airports) and watch the short-skirmish ceiling flip into a 6-month attrition regime.

Switching prob.
63%
Reversibility
120 d
IHL exposure
57/100
RegimeTargetsPull-inEscort
/ simulationENTER DESK →
GOV-04LIVE

Governance Collapse · May 2026

Electoral cycle breaks, caretaker cabinet extends, civil service drains, donor benchmarks substitute for mandate. Ministry-by-ministry health vs. legitimacy decay.

Collapse prob.
54%
Fiscal runway
3 mo
Legitimacy loss
68/100
Election delayAttritionGrid h/dayIMF / bonds
/ simulationENTER DESK →
FOD-05LIVE

Food Security Emergency

Airlift ops center for GCC staples. Kcal-gap accounting against contracted freighter fleet, war-risk premium, bilateral airport MOUs, and ration-priority matrix.

Airlift coverage
46%
90-day cost
$4.8 B
Unrest prob.
57%
FreightersDaily flightsWar-risk ×Rationing
/ simulationENTER DESK →
WTR-06LIVE

Desalination Threat

Plant-level target board. Select strikes on up to five complexes; watch coverage, reservoir days, tanker saturation, energy-coupling failure, and IHL exposure.

Coverage
58%
Worst rebuild
80 d
IHL exposure
79/100
Plants hitReservoirTanker fleetInterconnect
/ simulationENTER DESK →
Operating principle

These are not hypotheticals. Each desk is built around the declared red lines, funding benchmarks, and reversibility cliffs that are already in the public record. The levers produce real dependencies: contracts signed under a skirmish regime break under attrition, mandate extensions under unanimous renewal become permanent, airlift at crisis pricing outlasts the crisis. Use the desks to surface the lock-in cost before it is sunk.