What-If Simulations
What-If Simulations is where the engine is pointed at live, contested events — not safe hypotheticals. Each hot-topic page below runs the same cost / benefit / risk engine used for the pilot, applied to a specific convergence of kinetic, economic, and humanitarian pressure. Run them, change the environment, and see how the structural risk moves.
Each hot topic below is its own page with its own declared environment and the same scoring machinery. The full engine logic is documented on the Methodology page. The topics are grouped by the pressure layer they primarily test.
Cross-pillar master scenario
Kinetic & Geopolitical
Awali Line fallout: LAF authority when international funding is tied to June 30, 2026 disarmament benchmarks.
"Switching Regime" risk — a 4–6 week skirmish flipping into a 6-month war of attrition.
Impact of the postponed May 2026 Lebanese elections on social cohesion and public service delivery.
Humanitarian & Logistics
Airlift feasibility for staples when 70%–80% of GCC caloric intake is Strait-routed.
Economic impact of kinetic strikes on water infrastructure where desalination supplies up to 99% of potable water.