Lebanon–Israel Normalization (Pilot)
Strategic cost/benefit/risk for a regional normalization framework.
These declare the world the simulator should assume. Missing any required field will block the scenario from running.
The seven scoring dimensions
Visible, immediate economic gains that normalization supporters usually promote.
0 none • 5 weak • 10 moderate • 15 strong • 20 major
Risk that normalization reduces independent decision-making or creates future external leverage.
0 none • 5 light • 10 moderate • 15 high
Risk that normalization creates future pressure on laws, regulations, speech, or institutions.
0 none • 5 low • 10 medium • 15 high
Whether the country stays free, later on, to criticize, refuse, resist, or reverse course.
0 none • 5 manageable • 10 moderate • 15 serious • 20 major
Tests whether security genuinely improves, stays uncertain, or is merely postponed.
0 worsens • 5 mixed / uncertain • 10 clearly improves
Internal social and cultural consequences of the proposal.
0 severe damage • 5 mixed / manageable • 10 stable / positive
How closely the proposal resembles past cases where visible gains were followed by pressure.
0 strong negative precedent • 5 mixed • 10 little warning