THEATRE · LEBANON · POSTPONED MAY 2026
TX · LIVE · 2026-06-11
Governance Collapse Interregnum Desk
Model the interregnum: what happens when the electoral cycle breaks, civil service drains, public services degrade, and donor benchmarks substitute for a democratic mandate.
Doctrine · Caretaker drift · Donor-benchmark legitimacy
▶Election postponed 12 months▶Civil service attrition 42%▶Public grid 8 h/day▶Informal economy share 78%▶Emigration pressure 18%▶Collapse probability 78%▶Election postponed 12 months▶Civil service attrition 42%▶Public grid 8 h/day▶Informal economy share 78%▶Emigration pressure 18%▶Collapse probability 78%
01 · CABINET OFFICE
Institutional levers
Election postponement12 mo
Months past the original May 2026 date.
Civil service attrition42%
Departure of skilled staff due to devalued LBP payroll.
Public grid availability8 h/day
EDL grid hours — below 6 triggers water-trucking premium.
Donor conditionality tightness75%
Share of budget support tied to benchmarks.
Informal / cash economy share78%
Untaxed cash share — shrinks fiscal base, inflates black-market FX.
Emigration pressure18%
Annual outflow of working-age cohorts.
02 · LEGITIMACY & FISCAL
Interregnum telemetry
Days since constitutional date
0d 00:00
Collapse probability
78%
Fiscal runway
6mo
Legitimacy loss
69/100
CPI spiral YoY
+40%
Sectarian stress
75/100
Public services
15/100
Legitimacy decay69%
Service collapse85%
Social fracture75%
Fiscal cliff28%
03 · STATE CAPACITY
Ministry-by-ministry health
Ministry of Finance
holdingcapacity 71/100
Ministry of Interior
stressedcapacity 48/100
Ministry of Education
stressedcapacity 49/100
Ministry of Health
holdingcapacity 65/100
Ministry of Energy
stressedcapacity 37/100
Ministry of Justice
stressedcapacity 59/100
04 · DONOR ANCHOR
Legitimacy substitutes
Anchor ladder
Vote
Caretaker
Donor
IMF gate
External
Each rung substitutes an external anchor for electoral legitimacy. The substitution is cheap in month 1, expensive at month 24: benchmark compliance becomes the only language of authority, and the next elected government inherits locked-in conditions.
Reversibility window
With an IMF programme + diaspora bonds, a reset by 2028 is plausible. Without either, the state enters a structural dependency regime that typically outlasts two electoral cycles.
05 · FORECAST
24-month trajectory