THEATRE · IRAN–ISRAEL · REGIME SWITCHING
TX · LIVE · 2026-06-11
Iran–Israel Strike Loop Control Desk
A short 4–6 week skirmish carries a non-trivial probability of flipping into a 6-month attrition regime that invalidates every short-window commitment. Pre-sign nothing you cannot unwind.
Doctrine · Switching regime · Reversibility cliff
▶Active regime: SKIRMISH▶Skirmish-to-attrition switching probability 19%▶Critical infrastructure targets armed: 0/5▶Projected attrition duration 1 months▶Brent benchmark $78/bbl▶Reversibility window 30 days▶Active regime: SKIRMISH▶Skirmish-to-attrition switching probability 19%▶Critical infrastructure targets armed: 0/5▶Projected attrition duration 1 months▶Brent benchmark $78/bbl▶Reversibility window 30 days
01 · DOCTRINE
Regime selector
Weeks on ceiling4 wk
How long the short-regime ceiling holds before stress drives a switch.
Third-party frame
02 · RED-LINE BOARD
Infrastructure targeting
Each armed target lifts switching probability. IHL exposure compounds non-linearly — water and civilian aviation targets are doctrinally treated as protected.
03 · STATE OF PLAY
Telemetry
Switching probability
19%
Attrition duration
1mo
Reversibility window
30days
Brent benchmark
$78/bbl
Shipping premium
1×peacetime
Regional GDP Δ
-1.8% YoY
IHL exposure
0/100
Third-party pull-in
50/100
Targets armed
0/ 5
Switching probability19%
IHL exposure0%
Third-party pull-in50%
04 · LOCK-IN RISK
Escalation ladder
Regime ladder
Demo
Harass
Swap
Infra
War
Switching regime warning
Every contract priced off the short regime (insurance premia, airlift tonnage, reconstruction commitments) assumes reversibility. A flip into attrition removes that assumption mid-contract. Short-regime pricing is cheaper only if the short regime holds.
Historical anchor
1984–1988 Tanker War: attrition regime ran 4 years before de-escalation. Reversibility window in the historical case was measured in years, not weeks.
05 · FORECAST
24-week escalation & reversibility trajectory