Litani–Awali Buffer Zone Control Desk
Pressure-test the Awali-Line buffer proposal against LAF authority, disarmament benchmarks, and June 30, 2026 funding conditionality. Every lever trades short-term stability for long-term sovereignty drift.
Declared 6-month mandate still active 48 years later. Sunset absent → renewal default.
Buffer depth 12–20 km locked in for 18 years; mandate creep with no written exit.
Asymmetric disarmament language never enforced. Conditionality ≠ compliance.
Blue-Line violations unresolved; reversibility costs compound with every missed benchmark.
Reversibility is LOW: without a written sunset clause and with unanimous renewal, the buffer zone will outlast the crisis it was drawn to solve. Benchmark miss risk exceeds 60% — LAF payroll tranches are on a cliff. Prepare contingency for salary FX pass-through into CPI. LAF stability dips below 50. External payroll cannot compensate for asymmetric disarmament if parallel actors retain capability.